The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area

The Information Content of M3 for Future Inflation in the Euro Area. — The information content of M3 for future inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of perspectives. Our results confirm that a significant positive association exists between the real money gap and future inflation up to five to six quarters ahead. It is also shown that, although the extended P-star model outperforms the rival model in some respect, the hypothesis that no useful information is contained in rival evidence can be rejected.     

古典屈学中屈原人格研究与现代屈学人格理论

自汉初迄清季,历代学者虽没有用“人格”一词来评论屈原,但对其人的性格、气质、能力、品行等多有阐发,并集中在忠君爱国的伦理道德层面。这些感发式的阐述,包含了“人格”的一些方面,是对屈原人格不自觉的局部揭示。以人格心理学理论观照,屈原赍志以殁,是历史必然条件下其人格合乎逻辑的推衍,是他对人生积极探索之后的必然选择。     

Commentary: The corporate structure of financial conglomerates

Commentary: The corporate structure of financial conglomerates     

Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula‐based Approach*

In this work, we present a methodology for measuring and optimizing the credit risk of a loan portfolio taking into account the non‐normality of the credit loss distribution. In particular, we aim at modelling accurately joint default events for credit assets. In order to achieve this goal, we build the loss distribution of the loan portfolio by Monte Carlo simulation. The times until default of each obligor in portfolio are simulated following a copula‐based approach. In particular, we study four different types of dependence structure for the credit assets in portfolio: the Gaussian copula, the Student's t‐copula, the grouped t‐copula and the Clayton n‐copula (or Cook–Johnson copula). Our aim is to assess the impact of each type of copula on the value of different portfolio risk measures, such as expected loss, maximum loss, credit value at risk and expected shortfall. In addition, we want to verify whether and how the optimal portfolio composition may change utilizing various types of copula for describing the default dependence structure. In order to optimize portfolio credit risk, we minimize the conditional value at risk, a risk measure both relevant and tractable, by solving a simple linear programming problem subject to the traditional constraints of balance, portfolio expected return and trading. The outcomes, in terms of optimal portfolio compositions, obtained assuming different default dependence structures are compared with each other. The solution of the risk minimization problem may suggest us how to restructure the inefficient loan portfolios in order to obtain their best risk/return profile. In the absence of a developed secondary market for loans, we may follow the investment strategies indicated by the solution vector by utilizing credit default swaps.     

Dynamic economic analysis of marine pollution prevention technologies: An application to double hulls and electronic charts

Marine pollution associated with shipping accidents has resulted in a Congressional mandate for double hulls on tankers in U.S. waters. In this paper, we formulate a social planner's problem using optimal control theory to examine the relative cost-effectiveness of double hulls and alternative pollution prevention technologies, and the optimal installation strategy for such technologies. The model encompasses the costs and benefits associated with shipping operations, damage to the marine environment, and investment in each technology. A computer simulation of the model is used to evaluate investment strategies for two technological options: double hulls and electronic chart systems. Results indicate that electronic charts may be a far more cost-effective approach to marine pollution control.     

对我国显性国债规模及风险的认识和分析

国债风险可归纳为数量风险、金融风险和使用风险。通过分析,建议从数量的确定、偿还期限的安排、运行的规范化、国债资金使用的监督等方面来防范我国的国债风险。     

生产许可证制度的实施与加强质量管理

介绍了石油企业实施产品生产许可证制度的现状和作用,提出企业在实施产品生产许可证工作中存在的问题.     

加强制度建设,培养提高项目经理素质

国家推行施工企业项目经理责任制以来，项目经理数量数以万计迅速发展壮大，但是国内外的建筑市场迫切要求项目经理有更高的素质，提高项目经理的综合素质是建筑企业的迫切任务。本论述了施工企业如何加强制度建设，培养提高项目经理的素质。